Long story but perhaps of interest.
I have written this several times the last 8 years,
at several places and I think two times at The Lounge.
It will never be a downturn in vintage watches, of class.. never!
I followed this market for about 10 years and I have about 45 years of knowledge about the stock market,
since I as 15 years old amateur went in the stock market in the middle of 1960’s.
What we have now is no financial crisis, it’s only the ‘big boys’ taking home their money,
after an unlikely period of just up going market, that I never experienced in 45 years.
It’s just a bubble.
Journalistic crap as always.
I disgust, as many others with me, these ‘financial’ journalists.
What’s their experience of managing a company (which I have done with several),
what’s their knowledge of personal investments, other than peanuts?
I don’t have any economical education, I’m only a doc, but I have practical experience,
all my friends in business say the same as I do now.
The journalists have created this crisis, as they have created a lot other bad things...
Would for example FedEx pay the winner in golf (!), $ 10.000.000 next week, if it was a world crisis?
Would it have happened in 1929 or even in 1987? NO.
OK, I’m no ‘big gun’, but I have been following the market and I'm steadily in touch with it all the time.
I have made some horrible mistakes, especially when I was young, but also some real good returns 3-2 years back.
Than I understood it was sky high and I froze my investments ( the ones that I’m going to live of the rest of my life, or my family…but first I’ll play golf some years ).
What about watches are you thinking, this Doc with all his words.
If you look back at the auctions you see that the prices has not fallen at all,
no they have actually gone up for interesting objects.
Look at our own Vacheron&Constantin.
I promise you, here and now, that in two or three years from now,
you will have had one of the best investments ever, in vintage Vacheron&Constantin!
The price on paintings, sculptures etc. meaning things that people who visits your home or office notice,
has of course fallen.
So it has been every time the stock market have done a down turn,
But not watches, because we who buy watches, don’t buy them to ‘show off’.
Actually no one see if you have a watch for €500 or €500.000 on your wrist.
You buy the watch for yourself, not for anyone else.
I think VC is generally valued lower than 50% of their future value.
This because there are so few, most of them stay in the family, “From father to son” which VC wrote 1950,
but PP has stolen and started using with out any shame.
PP is soon another Rolex, their exclusivity has gone with the production volume,
and the PP museum can’t keep on buying ALL PP’s at the auction houses. There is a limit to them too.
I have sold some watches, about 8-10 the last year, which I had in as company,
and are forced to sell, because I'm closing the company, but I haven’t lost a € yet!
On the other hand I haven’t made any profit, since I have only sold to collectors that are in our family!
So don’t be afraid to buy,
And for heavens sake don’t sell any VC’s
Still they are allowed to write freely on all economical questions.