Doc sticking out his head, again!

Long story but perhaps of interest.

I have written this several times the last 8 years,
 at several places and I think two times at The Lounge.
It will never be a downturn in vintage watches, of class.. never! 
I followed this market for about 10 years and I have about 45 years of knowledge about the stock market,
since I as 15 years old amateur went in the stock market in the middle of 1960’s.

What we have now is no financial crisis, it’s only the ‘big boys’ taking home their money, 
after an unlikely period of just up going market, that I never experienced in 45 years.
It’s just a bubble

Journalistic crap as always.
I disgust, as many others with me, these ‘financial’ journalists.
What’s their experience of managing a company (which I have done with several), 
what’s their knowledge of personal investments, other than peanuts?

I don’t have any economical education, I’m only a doc, but I have practical experience,
all my friends in business say the same as I do now.
The journalists have created this crisis, as they have created a lot other bad things...Doc sticking out his head, again!

Would for example FedEx pay the winner in golf (!),  $ 10.000.000 next week, if it was a world crisis?
Would it have happened in 1929 or even in 1987? NO.

OK, I’m no ‘big gun’, but I have been following the market and I'm steadily in touch with it all the time.
I have made some horrible mistakes, especially when I was young, but also some real good returns 3-2 years back.
Than I understood it was sky high and I froze my investments ( the ones that I’m going to live of the rest of my life, or my family…but first I’ll play golf some years ).

What about watches are you thinking, this Doc with all his words. Doc sticking out his head, again! 

If you look back at the auctions you see that the prices has not fallen at all, 
no they have actually gone up for interesting objects.Doc sticking out his head, again!
Look at our own Vacheron&Constantin.

I promise you, here and now, that in two or three years from now,
you will have had one of the best investments ever, in vintage Vacheron&Constantin!
The price on paintings, sculptures etc. meaning things that people who visits your home or office notice, 
has of course fallen.
So it has been every time the stock market have done a down turn, 

But not watches, because we who buy watches, don’t buy them to ‘show off’.
Actually no one see if you have a watch for €500 or €500.000 on your wrist.
You buy the watch for yourself, not for anyone else.

I think VC is generally valued lower than 50% of their future value. 
This because there are so few, most of them stay in the family, “From father to son” which VC wrote 1950,
but PP has stolen and started using with out any shame.Doc sticking out his head, again! 

PP is soon another Rolex, their exclusivity has gone with the production volume,
and the PP museum can’t keep on buying ALL PP’s at the auction houses. There is a limit to them too.

I have sold some watches, about 8-10 the last year, which I had in as company,
and are forced to sell, because I'm closing the company, but I haven’t lost a € yet!

On the other hand I haven’t made any profit, since I have only sold to collectors that are in our family! Doc sticking out his head, again!

So don’t be afraid to buy,
And for heavens sake don’t sell any VC’s Doc sticking out his head, again!


Still they are allowed to write freely on all economical questions.
i buy u on this, doc .......
09/17/2009 - 03:15
don't sell yr VCs, especially the V&Cs, for the love of beautiful objects that also tell time. aside from the love for watches, economically,  efficient market demand and supply reign prices. we all know that VC production is low, so the reason why the prices are not soaring is demand. i believe, like doc, that the market is inefficient. for the quality and beauty that the V&Cs offers, it is actually value for money, especially at today's prices. doc, thank u for this read at the right time, a gentle reminder to be wise with my money.
Re: Doc sticking out his head, again!
09/17/2009 - 14:37
Excellent piece, Doc.  Whilst we all know how to manage the good times it's also important to know how to manage the bad times. Bankers are a poor example of the latter! STEADY as we go is the key. It's always good to be reminded that we should remain STEADFAST! The article should be framed!! Tony
Im impressed of both Aaron and Tony,
09/17/2009 - 16:37
who manged to read all this to long stuff Even a bit flattered that such 'heay' guys thinks that I'm not on deep water To be honest the chance, no not Tony, was smal you would ever see it, because I wrote it the day before yesterday and when I posted it didn't come up, this because it had taken too long time. It's a limit of about 45 minutes that you have tosend your post within. Just so you know Cheers my friends Doc
VC and the market price
09/17/2009 - 18:21
I definately agree with you when you say that VC vintage watches are undervalued considering their global rarity. However this is also due in part to the brand. If you compare to the big market sellers that are Rolex and Patek the high prices result in the fact that collectors have information on the brand and often for the vintage pieces production numbers are indicated which underlines rarity. Just look at the number of books existing on vintage Rolex and Pateks, they are immense and collectors can feel comfortable as they have the knowledge, furthermore the auction catalogues often have some relevant information on the higher Pateks or Rolex but rarely on VC. VC's main problem is that the brand does not communicate: not on modern and not on vintage. Wanting to be understated is good, but you might just end up under the radar.
Couldn't be more true! nt
09/17/2009 - 22:02
In fact there are only three books and two catalogues about VC that counts. And the catalogues from 1994 and 2005 Absolute more is needed including ref no., movement no. and when how many were produced of each watch model.  Also all the history about the unique watches, Farouk's and Grave's watches for example. Doc
Sorry about the nt, had to attach some pics !! now (nt)
09/17/2009 - 22:04
Marlon Brando's VC was sold at Antiquorum yesterday for $18k (nt)
09/18/2009 - 14:14
What would the price been, if not Marlon have had it? nt
09/18/2009 - 17:08
Re: Doc sticking out his head, again!
09/18/2009 - 04:53
thanks doc, especially for the "from father to son"  by VC 59 years ago.    my heart grew warmer.         they say that copying is a sincere form of flatteryalways pol
Here is the actual text from V&C's catalogue 1950!
09/18/2009 - 17:11
Cheers Doc
Doc's done it again - ' The Thinking Man's Watch '
09/19/2009 - 00:07
I read Doc's article with great interest - I think most of us identify with Doc's experiences with regards to our early and sometimes naive efforts of collecting these beautiful vintage pieces - it is true,we are frequently punished along the path to perfection - its a journey rather like 'A Pilgrims Progress' - beset with many temptations and obstacles,but when we finally get the vintage watch we like,then it all seems worth it. There are also other brands,like Audemars Piguet,that share the same calibers as VC and PP,which are also undervalued and collectors should look at - I have recently purchased an AP utrathin automatic caliber 2120 - otherwise known as VC Caliber 1120 - these all sell well below PP's prices for vintage watches.Sadly for me when I go on watch forums,where AP is concerned,life and the company history seems to have been eclipsed after it launched the Royal Oak line in the 70's - its like a tsunami that has covered everything that went before - nice though this line is,there are also other watch brands that are suffering the same watch 'ethnic cleansing' - its truely depressing,especially if you like dress,or normal everyday watches. One truthful observation I can make is that in all the years I have worn vintage watches,not once has anyone ever passed comments,or compliments about whats on my wrist - having thought about this,I have to say,it has never bothered me - especially as I tend to be more interested in whats under the dial,as you may gather from my posts and questions - I think as there are so many large blingy watches out there,fake and real,I think unless you are wearing a large,or statement watch  - then most people,apart from fellow and minority watch cognoscenti,do not notice the real gems on peoples wrists - my partner wears cheap,but funky and unusual quartz watches,like Nixon etc and gets more interest and compliments - but this has been a point of much humour between us - however let me say this,we are in danger of getting lost in a sea of complication and over blown chronographs - guys,as you know,there was life before this - lets be honest,we cannot be all that vain if we are wearing our own gems,knowing that not many,if any people will recognise and acknowledge them - but never has a hobby given me more pleasure than this and to share special minority collecting like VC is liberating and is for those whom what something different - I would say I would describe VC as 'the thinking mans watch ' - as opposed to some brands that take the buyer by the nose and drag them to the purchasing counter. Happy collecting - Dr S.
Re: Doc's done it again - ' The Thinking Man's Watch '
09/19/2009 - 00:35
Thanks for your comments Dr. S. You've echoed many people's sentimentiments. The "no-compliments received" applies as well to newer watches but perhaps not quite to the same degree. Unfortunately some of the really interesting VC vintage pieces, especially those from the 20' and 30's including pocket watches have long disappeared into a melting pot to recover the gold. Apart from museums they hardly ever show up. Your comment about big bling-bling watches, I think is also on the mark. Just pick up any watch magazine and check out the ads. Make sure you're sitting down and perhaps even have taken something for nausea. Its pretty overwheming. But take heart. The pendulum will swing back and elegance will again become popular instead of just old fashioned (I hope ) Regards, Joseph
JB - do you think we should start the 'Elegent Watch Movement'
09/19/2009 - 01:15
Thanks JB, Your comments are most welcome and thanks for your endorsements - we should display our elegent vintage watches with pride - almost as an 'anti-bling movement - sign up all those who support our cause !!!!! Dr S.
Hear, hear! Where do I sign? (nt)
09/19/2009 - 21:11
Dear Dr Strangelove, thanks for your post,
09/19/2009 - 02:02
Like Tony said about mine above,I say the same about yours, it should be framed I think we got a new measure there. I think every word in your post could/would have been written by myself! The only difference is that you have done it better Yep, you said it, and that's the most amazing thing with a vintage V&C on your wrist, not even those "collectors" of the modern version, when "collecting" means that you buy every new model from a certain brand.  Stupid but I think it's the most common "collecting" of all. We all seen these fellows in WatchTime, what I call FFF ( fat fast flops ), who show their little "bungalow", Cadillac and a "collection" of everything in watches from Breitling to PP, mostly new. And probaly a minor billiard table and a "humidor" for their nearly "Cuban" cigars. Tha's the collectors of today, ha! No, a real man wears proudly and díscreet a Vacheron&Constantin on his wrist, and probably drives an European sports car. Of course he don't smoke cigars, that we quit 20 years ago, in the Old World. He would never figure in a magazine to show his watches, that's below his pride. Wearing a Vacheron&Constantin, is the most exclusive of all,  because no outsider even know how to pronouce this magic Brand, more and even better, they don't know it's the most exclusive and oldest of them all. I would buy a Rolls Royce tomorrow, if it wouldn't have looked especially different of all other cars, and no one knew that it was the oldest, best and most prestigefull cars in the world. Of course that's impossible. So, there is just an alternative left. Buy a vintage V&C and wear for yourself , that's luxury Doc
Doc,a picture is better than a thousand words !
09/19/2009 - 02:52
Well Doc, Thanks for the compliments,but as usual,the watch has done all the talking - elegance personified - enough said. Dr S.