Economical crisis?



Economical crisis?


Doc
Re: Economical crisis YES!
02/25/2009 - 20:45
Uh...Doc... I think you should show the chart from the last quarter which is much more meaningful Regards, Joseph
Forgot the old proverb,
02/25/2009 - 20:50
which goes like this: "If it shall go to h-ll, i't shall do it in First Class!" Doc
Thanks Doc. It will be interesting to see the figures
02/26/2009 - 05:11
Hi Doc, 2009 could be a turning point...whether the world economy will continue to slide, or governments/economists will be able to find the solution to prevent further collapse.  It will be interesting to see the figures at the end of this year (especially the first half). Maybe high-end (ultra-luxury brands) will not be as deeply affected as their markets are small to begin with and there will always be that handful of rich and new rich to pamper. Cheers, Kazumi
Reasons for concern
02/26/2009 - 10:52
2008 was a good year but the last 3 months were horrible and 2009 may be very tough. Yes, 2008 will go down in the record books as an excellent year. Ultimately though, figures for the final quarter will set the scene for the coming months, and they reveal some negative factors whose influence could well be felt as the new fiscal year gets underway. The markets that had been driving growth in the sector over recent months ended December in the red. Hong Kong lost 15.2% in value terms, Singapore fell 10% and China 11.8%. The downturn was even more noticeable in Russia (-34.1%) and Spain (-39%). The 15.9% fall in value terms in the US came as no surprise; less expected was that sales should plummet 30% in volume terms. Even the United Arab Emirates slipped into the red (-0.5%), while Saudi Arabia just managed to keep its head above water (+0.6%). The only good news in December came from Europe. The 13.4% drop in the number of exports recorded in December 2008, due mainly to shrinking sales of steel watches (-16%) which account for over half Swiss watch production, is also a clear indication of the difficulties currently affecting the mid-range segment. In the last quarter alone, exports of steel watches nose-dived by over a million units. This had a knock-on effect on figures for the year overall, with export volumes increasing by virtually zero on the previous two years. In December, companies in the Fine Watch segment exported products with an average ex-works value of CHF 2,920. This is 14.5% more than in December 2007 and 46.3% higher than five years ago. This price spike, a reflection of the growing number of technically sophisticated products made from noble and often innovative materials, could put a serious amount of strain on demand elasticity wherever the economic crisis is biting. Sooner or later, higher prices will no longer be enough to offset the 9.5% drop in volume sales in December. C.R.  Article taken fron the Journal de Haute Horlogerie : click here to see the article
Thanks Alex,
02/26/2009 - 13:51
You saved me the trouble  in having to post this chart. Its not looking too good and I think it will get even worse. Even in the used marked, things are not too good. Have a look at either the Purists or Timezone ads and a quick calculation of "FS" to "Sold" will show that demand for luxury and even not-so-luxiurious watches has fallen off significantly. Regards, Joseph
re Haute Horology
02/26/2009 - 17:47
Very informative Alex!  This reinforces my questions for Messr. Guten.  Does it make sense, with hindsight, to have released those very costly jewellery and complication pieces now?  How flexibile and responsive to demand is the design and manufacturing process at Vacheron...were they too far into the process when the crash hit to re-focus or are they still convinced that Haute Horology items are the right strategy?
No one can see the future.
02/26/2009 - 17:01
I can only compare to other trades, car industries etc and there 2008 results. I'm not believeing 2009 or probably 2010 either, will be other than dark years. I personally realised this in February 2008, and put my money in the money market funds. I think it's the first time they have passed any other fund Doc
Re: No one can see the future.
02/26/2009 - 21:02
Hi Doc, I put mine in a money-market mattress and now I sleep more soundly JB
Joseph, your mattress must be the worst of all!
02/26/2009 - 23:39
This is because you bought a big share of VC's production last year,  and yes, there is perhaps the answer to the rtesult 2008   Thanks for buying them, otherwise I had never had the possibility to see them Wear them in healthy and you and I if anyone shall Carpe Diem Mats
I agree, no one can tell what's going to happen next, let's say...
02/26/2009 - 20:37
6-12 months from now. Problem is a wave of spectacular bankruptcies is right around the corner and you cannot make a predictable forecast in any respect... Right here, they say 80 billion PLN (over 20 billion $) have been transfered from Polish banks abroad to support their foreign counterparts or afiliates, all against Polish bank regulations. How could that be? We have a very weak and leaky control system. And Goldman Sachs, among others, has just admitted they have been speculating on the Polish currency for the past few months. Due to that, our money has dramatically dropped in value, 30% and 40% - vs. CHF and EUR respectively. And there was no economical reason for that since our economy has been doing just fine. Go figure! And go pay your mortgage in CHF! Not to mention buy a VC watch in Geneva     
to be continued...
02/27/2009 - 18:25
I should have guessed that it would be following discussions, in these times, of my simple post, that still only concludes,  that the Swiss watch insustry never exported as much as they did 2008. Because they did, and the whole year was a really bad year! So, my friends, let's foget yesterday and live now and hopefully tomorrow. These magainzes cover, makes the Swedish readers here ROTFLTAO I'll translate each a part to you few who happens not to read Swedish, after each cover.SIC ! 21 days between the covers.... ASEA is preparing new billion deal. 60's belief in the future in the households back again.  High pressure in whole Sweden. In old crisis counties the machines are working fulltime. Ten days which shook the world. World agenda from the big landslide. The actors. The spectators. The slaughter. Economic journalists... Carpe Diem Doc