With recssion going on in US (Europe too?)

will watch buying public continue buying watches or stop for a definte period? Any thoughts r/e this? Thanks.

ps. Notice lots of good watches for sale lately?
I am not sur that the financial situation will have a deep effect for
10/08/2008 - 16:00

the end of 2008. But, it won’t be the same for 2009 (because 2008 incomes and bonus would have disappeared). I guess that during the 1st 6 months (maybe the entire 2009), opportunities will "dramatically" increase for those who have the cash to say “yes” (I hope Rei that you will be in this circle).

Amin to that! But I doubt it :-(
10/08/2008 - 18:14
but hey who knows? :-) My friend is a watch seller and he complains he got not enough cash to buy every watch sold to him.
In general I think that the aficionados will be more picky in
10/08/2008 - 16:08
the choice of their watches and the brands they buy.  The worst right now is the uncertanty surrounding the situation, at least once we hit the bottom there is only one way and that's up. Right now no one knows what's going on. On a personnal note I have been saving up for two pieces. QDI and a Tribute to the Great Explorers, I hope to be qble to get them in 2009 but thqt will be my only purchae in the next 18 months.
I agree uncertainty remains but hope that we hit the bottom
10/08/2008 - 18:18
soon... Wow, congartulation Alex! Fortunately I don't have anything on my list now...maybe on my dream list but not on my urgent wanted list
Luxury goods are the first to go...
10/08/2008 - 21:37
during a recession, I think.  The problem for opportunists with cash will be choosing between watches, cars and other trinkets.  At times like this, intelligent purchases from the great houses (Vacheron or Ferrari) will provide returns better than mutual funds over the medium and long term. Conservative savings in low-risk bonds plus the discipline to avoid credit for depreciating purchases WAS a Canadian trademark encouraged by our few major banks.  Unfortunately, as with the USA, our banks now lead the way with huckster marketing tactics to extend individuals credit to the breaking point.  Now those clowns are nervous and won't even lend for legit opportunities, while using their own bad behaivor as an excuse to cry for government bailout.  Unbelieveable!
Canadian banks
10/09/2008 - 00:40
Interesting comments although done with a bit of a broad brush. I don't recall seeing any major Canadian Banks asking for a bailout.  (Perhaps I missed it. I only read the National Post). Canadian banks unlike the US and European banks, were only marginally involved with the sub-prime fiasco and some not at all. Maxing out your credit card does not fall into the same category as what happened in these sub prime loans. The lending issue is more complex because of the problems with inter-bank lending which is international. And the limitations get passed down to the consumer. The main problem in central Canada is with manufacturing and a fall-off in demand for goods in the main marketplace (ie the US). Hey, but this is a watch forum, not economic disaster 101 JB
Re: Canadian banks
10/09/2008 - 01:40
True, I got a little excited there .  However, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is currently named in a class-action lawsuit (rare in Canada) for hiding $260M in US-based sub-prime write-downs from it's shareholders. Also disturbing is the change of practice of the major Canadian banks in 2007, which used to require 25% mortgage downpayment, to only require 20% down.  If it hadn't been for this crisis, I'd predict they would continue to move that benchmark lower still.
Re: Re: Canadian banks
10/09/2008 - 04:49
That's true about the CBIC, they were the bank most exposed, the TD not at all. But its a far cry from going under. With their unseemly profits they can take a hit like that and remain standing Plus, although 20% is about as low as anyone taking a mortgage should reasonably go, its a far cry from the 5% per cent that was allowed in the US (a recipe for disaster!) There is also the Deposit Insurance Corporation which protects savings in Canada although I think its up to $60,000 but may be more. I don't think there is anything similar in the US but I'm not totally sure (I'll ask my wife, she's a lawyer specializing in corporate insolvency and know a hell of a lot more about this stuff than I do). Regards, Joseph
Bailouts?
10/09/2008 - 17:46
Should this be considered a bailout?  The Bank of Canada cut the prime lending rate by half a point this week but the banks only reduced their lending rates a quarter point and pocketed the rest.  The immediate effect was for their share prices to rise.  While the finance minister said what the Bank of Canada did was their own business (like there are any arms-length government agencies any more?) he also supported their strategy and I expect he'll say more in support this morning at his press conference. Fascinating discussion
Same in EU via the BCE... (nt)
10/09/2008 - 19:28
.
Re: With recssion going on in US (Europe too?)
10/08/2008 - 23:49
My observation has been the markets are slow and pricing soft. I do think the market will under go a price correction how severe is the question. Most of the corrections in my opinion will be on watches that were highly speculative and rose in value much to quick and to high. The biggest impact will be on newer models vs vintage/dis-continued models. I think for high quality vintage watches and some dis-continued models the markets are still alive and well but just not as strong.  It's a good time to sit back, have a nice glass of wine, read a good book (on watches of course) enjoy the watches you have and dream about the ones you want...thats what I am going to do. John
a QdI on your dream list, John? nt
10/09/2008 - 18:29
Hi Radek, I think so I just need to see it in person, I also
10/09/2008 - 21:15
am not sure if I want to order the stok version or one that is customized. I really like the look of titanium sides and the palladium body and the darker dial on a date only.    How about yourself? John
I absolutely share your preference as to a customized QdI...
10/09/2008 - 21:47

but I think I will first try to get the date only in Ti. Too long a wait till date only is going to be customizable. Then after a while an HL version of QdI should come to life... and I hope it will be a date only titanium/palladium mix

I am very positive as the QdI range expands into new models and complications in the future I will get more than one...     

There will be some rough times ahead...
10/09/2008 - 03:05
As most have already said, people will exercise a greater sense of caution when it comes to luxury spending.  The uncertainty regarding the future is what is particularly influential right now as nobody knows what is coming next and what is a safe haven. I believe that the sub US$50K market will be particularly vulnerable during this crisis.  The market for the US$100K and above watches will still be okay as those folks are a bit more recession proof.  There will be some major bargains to be found in auctions and in some markets as various retailers need to maintain their cash flow in order to survive.  A wise and savvy collector will be able to find good deals but some ADs, who have a solid financial foundation and no sense of panic, will be far more reluctant to offer major discounts as they will be thinking of protecting their market for the longer term. Just my two cents worth.... Cheers, Duncan
Re: There will be some rough times ahead...
10/09/2008 - 04:56
What you say is true, I believe, Duncan. In addition, I think many AD's will probably carry less inventory to protect their own cash positions and do more special ordering. As far as the over $100,000 market is concerned, we may see some bargains in those as well. Some of these pieces were bought as investments and depending on the individuals income or lack thereof, some of these pieces may become available too at tempting levels. It will probably put a real damper on those new independent manufacturers as well unless they have a secure and reliable clientele base. (My 1.8 cents worth) Joseph
Agreed Joseph, the indies may be facing some very...
10/09/2008 - 06:15
rough waters ahead.  Without a very reliable and consistent client base, plus some solid financial reserves or backing, they will probably experience a lot more stress.  As there is market contraction throughout all aspects of the industry, they will face a tougher supply situation as well.  This could be the much anticipated consolidation in the industry, which I personally think is not entirely a bad thing.  Time to possibly weed out the pretenders and those simply looking to make a quick buck from the previously booming watch industry. Brands, such as VC, with history, legitimacy and resources should weather the storm much better. Just my 1.6 cents worth... Cheers, Duncan
Thanks all, I have to agree with you guys.
10/09/2008 - 07:28
So I am going to follow JohnLy's advice :-) It's also time for those who have aimed a watch for a long time but never pulled the trigger maube due to hyped pricing, etc...now it's the time as it is for stock markets.